Geopolitics now sets the price of flying in India. Tensions in energy-producing regions keep crude volatile, and jet fuel is an airline's single biggest cost — typically 30-40% of operating expenses, so every spike lands directly on margins. For IndiGo, India's dominant carrier, that exposure is unavoidable. The question is whether its scale and cost discipline can absorb shocks that would cripple smaller rivals.

IndiGo's model is built on ruthless cost efficiency: a single-type fleet, high utilisation, and dense domestic reach. That advantage matters more when fuel costs swing and competition squeezes fares — Indian aviation is adding capacity fast, and when seat growth outpaces demand, yields compress across the sector. The RBI's rate stance cuts both ways: tighter credit raises aircraft-financing costs, but rate cuts would lift discretionary travel demand. International expansion adds airspace and currency risk on top.